Our business intelligence (BI) team was engaged by BaNES, Swindon and Wiltshire Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) to develop a system-wide demand and capacity model to support winter planning.
Objective
To support their winter planning Bath, North East Somerset, Swindon and Wiltshire ICB wanted a system-wide demand and capacity model that could model multiple scenarios and forecast demand for services based on recent demand.
The model needed to identify capacity gaps and highlight risks, including by types of bed, across acute and community providers.
What we did
We developed a fully tested model to forecast bed usage, discharges, and community demand. Research conducted with relevant stakeholders identified likely data requirements, data availability and access to data.
Key elements of the model included segmenting the population by patient or admission characteristics and defining projected lengths of stay (LoS) for each patient grouping based on historical data.
We played a crucial role in facilitating the partnership approach adopted between the core modelling team and BI representatives from across partner organisations, leading discussions across BI teams and developing templates to ensure consistency of source data across organisations.
Activity
Elective care
PMO implementation, operation and turnaround
Data driven decision making
Analytics and business intelligence
Outcome
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A snapshot of projected demand and capacity within the Urgent Care system over a 6–9-month period for several scenarios, highlighting risks and mitigations.
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A range of bed gaps identified across different scenarios for each provider, helping identify the potential levels of mitigation needed, against which projected winter scheme impacts could be compared.
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System-wide discussions and actions based on a consistent and comparable picture. Data that could be easily updated enabling comparison between the latest demand and capacity data against original projections.
